William M. Cockriel

Working Papers

"Machines Eating Men: Shoemakers and Their Children After the McKay Stitcher" (Job Market Paper)

I examine the long-run impacts of low-skill biased technologies on incumbent workers and their children. The McKay Stitcher dramatically changed shoe production in the late 19th century by replacing skilled workers with machines and less-skilled workers, but it was licensed in a few counties and impacted workers unevenly through the transportation network. Incumbent shoemakers left traditional shoemaking for lower wages and did not migrate. The transfer of occupation from father to son was disrupted, and the children of shoemakers entered lower income occupations and had lower wealth as a result. Using a model of occupation selection, I document enduring long-run impacts on shoemakers and their children, despite the economy otherwise exhibiting substantial geographic mobility and occupational mobility that might have suggested long-run mitigation of those consequences.

Download

"Futures Contracts and the Spot Market Response" with Martin Rotemberg and Anne Schick

On October 14, 1868, the Chicago Board of Trade began hosting and regulating a futures market for a variety of commodities. In the subsequent years, the Chicago Board of Trade established official booths on the trading floor for some commodities, and eventually installed a telephone. Using the detailed history of commodity futures in Chicago, we explore the dynamics of futures contracts, futures prices, and the spot prices of commodities during this period.

"Occupation Destruction" with Joseph Price

The proliferation of automobiles in the early 20th century led to the rapid decline of occupations related to horse-driven transportation, including teamsters and drivers of wagons and buggies. Using newly digitized data on state highways in this period and data on motor vehicle registrations, we use a measure of exposure to automobiles to examine the long-run consequences for incumbent horse-related workers and characterize the workers who adjusted best and who bore the largest burden.

"Manufacturing Establishments and Market Access" with Richard Hornbeck, Anders Humlum, and Martin Rotemberg

We examine economic adjustments at the establishment level caused by the rapid expansion of the railroad system in the 19th century United States. Using recently digitized establishment level data from the Census of Manufacturers in 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880, we find that greater market access did not lead to industry specialization but did lead to establishment-level specialization at the product level. Establishments produced fewer products and used correspondingly fewer inputs in production.